Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016594 0.018781 0.021151 0.023910 0.027033 0.030461 0.034511
2025-09-14 0.012598 0.015485 0.018879 0.023167 0.028444 0.034734 0.042811
2025-09-21 0.010529 0.013690 0.017620 0.022871 0.029713 0.038343 0.050079
2025-09-28 0.008908 0.012126 0.016314 0.022172 0.030170 0.040735 0.055797
2025-10-05 0.008222 0.011649 0.016290 0.023045 0.032653 0.045871 0.065510
2025-10-12 0.007568 0.011112 0.016085 0.023588 0.034657 0.050448 0.074797
2025-10-19 0.007041 0.010682 0.015959 0.024185 0.036734 0.055240 0.084765
2025-10-26 0.006403 0.010009 0.015395 0.024046 0.037659 0.058361 0.092441
2025-11-02 0.005890 0.009469 0.014966 0.024050 0.038762 0.061789 0.100832
2025-11-09 0.005347 0.008827 0.014312 0.023619 0.039108 0.064015 0.107435
2025-11-16 0.005021 0.008499 0.014120 0.023904 0.040614 0.068189 0.117556
2025-11-23 0.004639 0.008041 0.013671 0.023709 0.041281 0.071000 0.125565
2025-11-30 0.004414 0.007838 0.013642 0.024243 0.043272 0.076266 0.138419
2025-12-07 0.003990 0.007250 0.012904 0.023476 0.042911 0.077424 0.144053
2025-12-14 0.003687 0.006849 0.012456 0.023177 0.043347 0.079999 0.152459
2025-12-21 0.003354 0.006365 0.011817 0.022468 0.042954 0.081010 0.157978
2025-12-28 0.003274 0.006344 0.012022 0.023353 0.045631 0.087934 0.175452
2026-01-04 0.003154 0.006236 0.012053 0.023904 0.047700 0.093854 0.191447
2026-01-11 0.003048 0.006148 0.012112 0.024509 0.049919 0.100228 0.208897
2026-01-18 0.002864 0.005887 0.011813 0.024368 0.050617 0.103623 0.220483
2026-01-25 0.002711 0.005675 0.011595 0.024372 0.051606 0.107672 0.233775
2026-02-01 0.002525 0.005379 0.011182 0.023935 0.051628 0.109713 0.242904
2026-02-08 0.002424 0.005256 0.011114 0.024224 0.053221 0.115177 0.259999